HISTORY
Historically distant, Russia and Pakistan have, in recent years, undertaken a rapprochement, both economic and diplomatic, and recently also in defense. These two states share common interests, whether in trade, energy projects or the stabilization of the South Asian region and more particularly Afghanistan.
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CLOSENESS
For many years, the relationship between Russia and Pakistan remained weak, only a few trade and economic cooperation agreements, as well as contracts for the sale of arms, were signed. The USSR's invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, and Pakistan's support for the mujahedin as well as the Taliban increased the distance between the two states. It was only after the Cold War, by the combination of several factors - such as the rise to power of Vladimir Putin and the change of position of Pakistan vis-à-vis the Taliban following the attacks of 2001 - that a rapprochement between Russia and Pakistan could be considered. Subsequently, diplomatic visits and trade agreements have increased and joint efforts in the fight against drug trafficking and terrorism have been put in place. Russia supported Pakistan's request to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) - which it joined in 2017 - and in return, Pakistan supported Russia's request to become an observer member of the Organization for Islamic Cooperation.
From the 2010s, we witnessed an important turning point in the rapprochement between Moscow and Islamabad. In 2014, Russia lifted the embargo against Pakistan, which concerned the sale of military equipment, and Russian warships dock for the first time in the port of Karachi. At the same time, Pakistan distanced itself from the United States because of its multiple disagreements and recurring threats from Washington to cut financial aid if Pakistan did not act as requested by the latter.
A CONVERGENCE OF INTEREST
The desire for rapprochement between Russia and Pakistan was noticeable as early as 2003, in particular by the significant increase in trade, in parallel with the diplomatic rapprochement that was taking place. Their trade represented in 2003 USD 89 million to be of 730 million USD in 2018 [1].
The development of Russian arms sales to Pakistan has for many years been hampered by Moscow’s partnership with New Delhi. However, since 2013, India has sought to diversify its armaments partnerships and has turned to other suppliers, strongly impacting the Russia-Pakistan relationship in this area. At the same time, in 2011, Pakistan reduced its arms imports from the United States to turn to China. The combination of these elements favored, from 2014, the sale of arms from Russia to Pakistan, with significant growth from 2017, due to the change in Russia's diplomatic position vis-à-vis the principle of arms sales to Pakistan. . Thus, in 2018, Pakistan ranked tenth among the recipient countries of Russian arms exports [2].
INVESTMENT
Pakistan faces significant energy needs, and must develop its infrastructure to meet domestic demand. Russia has come forward as an interested party in several projects.
It participates in particular in the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) and Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline projects. The same goes for the LNG pipeline from Karachi to Lahore, the construction and maintenance of which will be left to Russian companies for 25 years. Russia is also participating in the CASA-1000 project, which involves the transfer of hydroelectric power from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan and Afghanistan. But one of the difficulties of this project is the unstable situation in Afghanistan. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) also sees Russian involvement.
DEFENSE COOPERATION
Defense cooperation between Russia and Pakistan has been in place since 2014, with the signing of a military cooperation treaty. Since then, joint exercises have taken place annually. Contracts for the training of Pakistani military personnel by Russia and the delivery to Pakistan of Russian combat helicopters were also signed. An important event was the docking, for the first time in 2014, of Russian warships in a Pakistani port. This element is strategic for Russia, which thus has a berth in the Arabian Sea. Then in 2018, a memorandum of understanding was signed between Russia and Pakistan whose objective is to promote the development of naval cooperation between the Russian and Pakistani navies.
This recent cooperation has regional repercussions and impacts the balance in South Asia. China, Pakistan and Russia are three nuclear powers, cooperating in defense, trade and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). India has expressed unease over these movements.
COOPERATION FOR THE SOUTH ASIA
Russia and Pakistan share the common goal of achieving a solution that brings stability to the South Asian region, through a resolution of the Afghan conflict. This stability is essential for them to achieve their individual objectives, namely, for Russia, the increase of its influence in South Asia, the consolidation of its position of indispensable partner in the world crises and the security of its southern border which is has always been an area of great fragility. For Pakistan, regional stability is essential to allow the development of the CPEC in partnership with China and thereby acquire economic and strategic power. It aims to become the equal of India, which could be achieved only in the context of regional stability.
The United States, considering the common interests of China, Pakistan and Russia, seeks to further support India in this region to strengthen its clout and counterbalance the trio.
GAME OF INFLUENCE
The regional balances of the South Asian zone and the alliances forged during the Cold War fluctuate. Each of the actors acts according to its national objectives and alliances are, in the majority of cases, based on converging economic and / or diplomatic interests.
In the years 2012-2014, several movements took place in the South Asian region: the strengthening of Russia's foreign policy towards Asia, the convergence of Russia towards China and Pakistan, Pakistan's distancing from the United States, and finally, the rapprochement of the latter with India. At the same time, the United States announced its withdrawal from Afghanistan and China was working on the implementation of the BRI. Russia's rapprochement with Pakistan must be viewed globally in this changing context.
The Russia-Pakistan relationship is particularly influenced by China, India and the United States. Each movement of one of these states acts on the others to influence each other. China influences the Russo-Pakistani relationship, notably through the CPEC and in the Afghan conflict. India does not welcome the development of the relationship between Russia and Pakistan. She fears Pakistan's economic and military growth and the weight these two powers - allied with China - represent in the South Asian regional balance. This fear greatly contributes to the rapprochement between India and the United States. Washington takes a dim view of the growing strength of the Russia-China-Pakistan trio, as well as the development of their economic, energy and defense partnerships. The United States fears in this context a loss of its influence in South Asia.
Concerned about maintaining its historic relationship with India and a good relationship with regional actors, Russia, in its rapprochement with Pakistan, will therefore have to be vigilant in the balance of its relations, particularly because of rivalries. between India and Pakistan.
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